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Freight prices are set to jump Monday, while longer transit times around Africa are disrupting and delaying deliveries of products. British clothing retailer Next recently warned of stock delays as a result of the longer ocean transit. "This creates strong motivations for ocean carrier(s) to increase rate(s) by establishing General Rate Increases (GRIs), Peak Season Surcharge (PSSs), and other contingency or emergency surcharges," the company said. "HLS warned Transpacific freight rates could spike to highs not seen since early 2022, with the Suez Canal route suspended, and the Panama Canal route restricted." Kuehne + Nagel analysts told CNBC that 419 vessels are currently being rerouted due to the Red Sea situation.
Persons: Jon Gold, HLS, Good Hope, Kuehne, Nagel, Franziska Bietke, Mark Rhodes, Rhodes Organizations: Lane Shipping, Ikea, National Retail Federation, CNBC, MSC, U.S ., East, U.S . Shipping Act, Federal Maritime Commission, Kuehne, Logistics, Crane Worldwide Logistics, CNBC PRO Locations: Suez, Ismailia, Egypt, Iran, Red, Africa, Asia, British, West Coast, Panama, U.S . West Coast, East Coast, Gulf of Mexico, South Africa's, Good, Project44, Europe
The decrease negatively impacts earnings for both trucking and rail where revenue is generated by moving freight. Ocean freight orders are a leading indicator of train and trucking earnings since 90% of the world's trade moves by water. This is one of three key supply chain charts that are signaling more financial potholes for trucking and rail companies. West Coast ports have been losing trade to both the East Coast ports and Gulf ports as a result of prolonged labor negotiations, though union representatives indicated last week a "tentative agreement" had been reached, but no details were provided. Trucking is needed for both container pick up at the ocean terminals and rail ramps.
Earlier this week, the Port of Los Angeles posted its lowest level of October since 2009. "Firstly, shippers are still avoiding the West Coast to mitigate the risk of labor strikes at LA and Long Beach. According to Project44 data, total vessel TEU capacity deployed from Europe to the East Coast is up 15.5% compared to Oct 2021. CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map providers warned in the summer and fall of a decrease in manufacturing orders which has impacted the volume of shipping. The lesser container volumes are now being seen off the ports across the East Coast, including New York and New Jersey.
"As shipping lines reduce their vessel calls in the form of blank sailings, this reduces the capacity for outbound volumes. Sea-Intelligence wrote in its recent blank sailings report that it has detected some unannounced cancellations for the calendar-year period of weeks 42-52 in the past two weeks. "Blank sailings have been ramped up drastically on the Transpacific, but not so much on Asia-Europe," said Alan Murphy, CEO at Sea-Intelligence. On Asia-North Europe routes, Sea-Intelligence is only seeing an additional six blank sailings, and on Asia-Mediterranean routes an increase of four blank sailings. The weekly average of vessels waiting this week is 14, waiting for an average of 6.3 days.
Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe Port of Bremerhaven, the main roll on/roll off port in Germany and one of the largest automobile hubs in the world, is experiencing gridlock. He said car imports into Bremerhaven from the U.S. and Mexico are operating on a timeline of months. Bremerhaven is Europe's fourth-largest containership port, with annual capacity over 5 million TEU [twenty-foot equivalent unit] containers. Another UK strike nearsAt the Port of Liverpool in the U.K., a fourth strike is set for November 14-21 if no deal with port management is reached. Braun told CNBC that since these strikes are well organized there is time in advance to plan and circumvent the port, diverting trade elsewhere.
A striking dockworker on a picket line outside the Port of Liverpool during a strike in Liverpool, UK, on Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2022. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLogistics experts are warning another strike set at the Port of Liverpool for Tuesday will only add to the existing delays in product delivery caused by the prior strikes at Felixstowe and Liverpool. Dockworkers in Liverpool, a significant U.K. port and a port where the U.S. is the No. Trade productivity at Felixstowe, the U.K.'s largest container port, and Liverpool have suffered as a result of various labor strikes since August. Braun told CNBC that the disruptions of past strikes and the upcoming Liverpool strike will unquestionably aggravate the existing congestion.
A striking dockworker on a picket line outside the Port of Liverpool during a strike in Liverpool, UK, on Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2022. The shop stewards who represent union workers accepted Peel Ports request for a meeting at the union office on Tuesday. Supply chain impact from second round of U.K. strikesThe latest development comes amid mounting labor issues linked to inflation at U.K. ports, with workers at the nation's largest port, Felixstowe, beginning another strike this week after one in August. "Unite made it clear that until they have reached their goals these waves of strikes will continue which will have a massive impact on the Christmas business and supply." The CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map shows the present situation at the ports.
Tensions are rising in West Coast port labor battles as unions and port management trade accusations about worker productivity and the awarding of job assignments. Jerome Roberts, GVP of marketing at supply chain consulting company Blume Global, told CNBC the one shift protest had no lasting productivity impact. Logistics companies fear the latest round of accusations will only increase tensions for a supply chain and national port infrastructure already dealing with multiple labor concerns. Project44, which also collects and analyzes port productivity for the CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map, has tracked some recent issues at Seattle operations. Container dwell times at the Port of Oakland have been improving over the month of September, according to Josh Brazil, vice president of supply chain insights at Project44.
This comes as the flow of trade continues to move away from the West Coast with logistics managers worried about a labor strike or lockout. More East Coast trade, and more port congestionThe CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map for the U.S. shows how the continued increase in trade has East Coast ports and Gulf port as the winners in this movement of freight. Maritime prices fallingThe flow of trade away from the West Coast has decreased the demand for vessel space, leading Far East to West Coast maritime freight prices to fall. "Shippers are still bringing in a lot of containers, on the East Coast and West Coast and Gulf Coast as well." Shippers are still hesitant to return re-routed cargo to the U.S. West coast, Sand said.
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